China to see one longer, more severe COVID wave as Lunar Festival fuels outbreak

Airfinity has updated its cases and deaths forecast for China’s COVID-19 outbreak as the Lunar New Year holiday hastens the spread of the virus. 

Today’s new forecast considers reports that some provinces including Henan, Gansu, Qinghai and Yunnan have already seen infections peak. 

Our analytics indicators suggest that the virus has spread more quickly to rural areas, partly driven by people traveling for the Chinese New Year celebrations.

This increased growth rate has changed our forecast from predicting two successive waves to one larger and more severe wave.